The PC: past, present and future
25-08-2006
by Emmet Ryan

As the PC celebrates its 25th birthday ENN looks back at its history and asks what's in store for the future?

It's been 25 years since IBM released its first PC, jump-starting not only the massive global PC industry -- now reckoned to be worth USD200 billion annually -- but also changing forever the way in which humans use technology for the storage and retrieval of information.

Research reveals that 1.6 billion computers have been sold since 12 August 1981 when IBM launched its new PC for USD1,565. The IBM 5150 was powered by an Intel microprocessor and contained 40KB of read-only memory (ROM) and 16KB of user memory. This meant it could store about as much data as a three or four page Microsoft Word file today.

Aside from the processing power that the device offered to businesses globally, one of the main attractions early PCs had for businesses was the reduced costs they promised.

Twenty-five years on, a new approach to business computing could not only cut costs but reduce the amount of maintenance needed for PC. Thin client servers store most data in a central server, reducing the storage requirements of individual units. This means there is less chance of problems with specific PCs, and any issues that do arise can be dealt with at the server itself.

These servers offer an easier and more cost effective means of securing information. Data is stored directly on to the server instead of on individual units. This way, PC hardware costs are reduced as there is less need for storage space. The servers also use far less energy than more traditional servers currently available to business.

In addition, the servers may reduce the software licensing fees companies face; instead of storing applications such as Microsoft Office on individual units the users will instead use virtual applications running off the main server.

The full impact that thin client servers will have on desktop computing is still uncertain. Though there are still benefits to other types of servers, thin client has the potential to make changes comparable to those made by early PCs.

By standardising the industry the PC allowed for computing to be more affordable to consumers. Previously, outdated or non-compatible models needed to be completely replaced but the PC allowed businesses and consumers to upgrade in line with their own needs. Similarly, thin client computing could reduce the need for businesses to replace PCs, potentially leading to a slow down in PC sales as units last longer.

Increased PC life could change the face of the marketplace for PC manufacturers globally but at least one producer has faced this problem before. While the PC standardised the industry, the flipside for IBM was that the standard model was easily replicated by competitors. This has resulted in an industry that now has over 10,000 manufacturers worldwide.

With so many competitors Lenovo, a Chinese firm that acquired IBM's personal computing arm in 2005, faces a tough challenge.

"Our aim at Lenovo in Europe and across the world is to build up our business penetration so that our market share in the corporate space increases," said Fiona O'Brien, Lenovo Ireland's country manager. "That's not just for large companies, we are very much focused on SMBs, small businesses and very small businesses," she said.

While thin client servers address many problems faced inside the office, the dramatic increase in remote and mobile working is one challenge the desktop PC isn't designed to handle.

"We believe that the future is mobile," said O'Brien. "PC shipments in Ireland are currently dominated by desktops, but as work patterns change, technology develops and mobile prices drop, Lenovo believes that volume shipments on mobiles will continue to rise exponentially."

Though mobile formats may be increasing in popularity, there is still a role for the desktop, according to O'Brien. "The desktop will always have a place. At a global level, desktop is still the lion's share of the PC market; driven in the main by developing countries such as China and Latin America, where the PC market is expanding at double digit growth rates."

The original IBM 5150 retailed at a relatively cheap USD1,565, and in many industries price remains a key reason in desktops remaining more popular than laptops.

"For organisations such as call centres whose users have little mobility requirements, the desktop is the perfect choice, particularly as desktops are still significantly lower in price than notebooks," said O'Brien.

With so many new developments and continuing innovation in the sector, what's to become of the PC?

Analyst group Gartner has warned that the dominance of the PC is under threat not from smartphones or virtualisation, but from the source of its success -- flexibility and innovation.

Gartner predicts that in coming years the growing availability of cheap bandwidth and processing power, combined with web-based services, will make a new style of application delivery possible, which could "unravel" some of the complexity surrounding PCs.

Whatever the future of the humble PC, in another 25 years users will probably look at the devices we currently use in the way we look at early PCs and wonder how we got by with such primitive machines.