OPINION
The PC is dead -- long live the PC
11-07-2002
by Ralph Averbuch
Last week we heard that the billionth PC had, most likely, been sold somewhere on the planet during April. That was from a starting point in the mid 70s with the Altair containing the Intel 8080 chip.
But perhaps the more interesting statistic was the prediction that the next billion will be reached by 2008; just some six years away. It took 25 years to get a billion under our belts and it's believed it will take just six for the next. That's some increase in growth.
Of course, the PC has morphed from its original, very basic functions, into an all-round multimedia device that many pundits see being the central hub of our lives. Yet, only a few years ago we were hearing dire predictions from another set of 'experts,' telling us that the PC was a dying breed. We heard that PCs would be usurped by a host of specialist digital devices and dumb terminals were going to invade our homes and offices, leaving all the power sitting on a central server somewhere, while the do-it-all computers on our desks would disappear.
Perhaps not surprisingly, this was a vision that held appeal for the device manufacturers. It suggested an orgy of sales as people bought dedicated hardware for a variety of different tasks.
Their vision, however, was clouded by two key variables. The most obvious is the price point. If the dedicated devices can be sold cheaply enough then it's true that people will spend the cash. However, most of the specialist devices that might have mass consumer appeal are, in fact, really rather expensive. A powerful PDA with a colour screen will cost you as much as a pretty powerful PC these days. The PC has become more powerful and costs a fraction of what it used to. We're seeing the same happening with the PDA.
The other thing missed was that people actually like the concept of multi-function devices. It's ironic that the PDA, which started out as a contact database and calendar aimed at replacing the paper diary, has itself evolved into a multimedia powerhouse in your pocket -- a mini PC, in fact. Today, if you want, you can do almost all the things you can with a PC, stick it in its cradle next to your grey box when you get home or back to the office and viola, all your files are synched up!
On the plus side, with new I/O ports such as firewire and USB, it's now easier than ever for electronics manufacturers to develop consumer devices that implicitly suggest the need for the PC. Take the digital camera. It first began to emerge as a consumer device in the mid 1990s. The image quality was bad, the price was high and it didn't seem to have a lot going for it.
But seven years on, market analyst Infotrends says digital camera shipments worldwide are on track to reach 21.5 million units this year, and that's a staggering 36 percent increase from 2001. This may be due to the ease of sharing with friends and family anywhere in the world, via, of course, your trusty PC, a connection to the Net and an e-mail account.
The digital camera points us towards where we're most likely going with the PC. If it isn't already for some, it will become the central point from which we all put in and take out information. It might be financial with home banking, commercial with on-line shopping, entertainment with games and audio and -- just so long as the price point is acceptable -- we'll plug in the relevant device to collect or distribute the bits of stuff we want.
The personal computer is a chameleon. Even now we're considered socially deprived if we lack a PC and that's why it's going to remain a central part of our social and professional lives now, when the next billion are sold and for a long time thereafter. Just don't ask me to predict whether it'll still come in a grey box!
Caped Koala Studios has built a virtual world for kids, combining education and social networking 