OPINION
Who Wants Broadband?
15-11-2002
by Bernie Goldbach
Ireland still offers relatively little in the way of affordable, high-speed, always-on Internet access. But recent surveys suggest Ireland's population may not be clamouring for broadband.
Surveys conducted by the market research firm MRBI for the Irish telecoms regulator show that only 14 percent of the population would be "very likely" to sign up for any broadband service. A full 25 percent of people said they were "not at all" likely to become broadband customers.
The survey generated much discussion, with some commentators pointing out that the overall figures are positive. Ralph Averbuch, marketing director at ElectricNews.Net, pointed to the figure that showed 32 percent of people said they would be "likely" to use broadband, making a total of 46 percent overall who showed interest in the technology. "Given the lack of understanding in the market, that seems like a good figure," Averbuch said.
"I would think that the study is spot on," agreed Patrick Delaney, an Internet analyst in Dublin. "I would also think that the interest in broadband will only pick up if people see broadband in action." Delaney believes a significant part of the population sees broadband "as hype from spin doctors," making it very difficult to believe in its potential.
"Broadband is not a burning issue for people not involved in the ICT sector," said systems administrator Noel O'Grady in Dublin. He would "like to see the Irish government try some of the South Korean initiatives, such as subsidised PCs and connections to lower income houses. And, of course, a 1 megabit connection for about EUR30 per month for the rest of us."
But the MRBI research shows that perhaps the demand simply is not there. Of the 756 people interviewed, a group controlled by gender and social class to be a representative sample, 63 percent had used the Internet. Yet only 14 percent of the interviewees expressed a strong interest in broadband, while 32 percent expressed some interest.
Several writers on the Open Mailing List, Ireland's liveliest technical discussion zone, pointed out that until people see broadband in action, there won't be much of a demand for it.
"It's a bit like asking a dog would he like a biscuit without actually showing him the biscuit," said Mark Woods, technical lead at Odyssey Internet Productions, Dublin. "Give everyone broadband for six months, then do your survey," suggested Colm O'Riordan of Communicraft. "Once people can see the benefits, there would be immense uptake."
O'Riordan cited recent reports that placed entertainment as the number one item that users were willing to pay for on-line. "That makes high bandwidth just as important as always-on flat fee access. "
"Yet again, it is a 'Build it and they will come' scenario," said Brian Farrelly, product QA manager with New Symphony in Dublin. "If you asked everyone 10 years ago if they wanted a mobile phone, most would have said no. Today they are ubiquitous. If broadband were widely available and reasonably priced, most people would have it.
"Selling technology is always difficult without being able to show the benefits through real applications," Farrelly added. "There is little appetite outside the gamers and file sharers right now, as these are the only groups who see an immediate benefit."
"It would cost everyone more," said Brian Walsh, MD of Alia in Cobh. "If everyone is always-on-and-streaming then every backbone and the connections from the backbone would have to be fatter. That's not going to happen at EUR30 a month."
LAND BATTLES WITH INFRASTRUCTURE ISSUES
Ireland has the least developed Internet infrastructure in the EU, according to a recent report from the EC's telecoms advisory body. "That's because of the poor record of Irish telecoms companies in building broadband networks," pointed out Tim Kirby at Xi Blue in Dublin. Kirby develops corporate videos for on-line streaming and relies on broadband access.
Such has been the seeming pressure of demand for always-on broadband access that a highly successful pressure group, Ireland Offline, regularly contributes to public policy documents, most relating to the cost of Internet access.
"I think more people are interested in flat rate Internet access," said Dara Walsh from County Cavan. "Fast speeds would help and always-on is nice, but cost would be the main benefit to a lot of people."
Walsh uses Eircom High Speed "and the phone bill is huge, just on Internet calls. Two of the guys in the company live 15 minutes away over the border and they pay only STG30 a month for always-on service. That's very frustrating."
"The majority of Irish have little exposure to broadband," said Web developer David Waldron from DMT International in Galway. "They don't imagine they can get the same speed at home that they get at the office. They think of the Internet in terms of dial-up speeds from home. I'd pay EUR30 a month for a decent dial-up package. It's going to take introductory bonuses to get people hooked."
Ross Cooney, Internet developer at antivirus.ie, described a sample application that leverages his broadband connection. He got a Blackberry handheld computer with a permanent unlimited GPRS connection for under EUR50 a month. "This needs an always-on Internet connection in our office so it can connect and communicate with our exchange server." He thinks, "if people had the option of this type of technology they would take it. But the state and cost of Irish telecoms makes this prohibitive."
"A lot of companies made promises about the Internet in the past without delivering," said Michele Neylon of Blacknight Solutions. "People are getting rather upset with large phone bills and unreliable dialup connections."
Even if broadband were available to the masses, the Irish track record suggests it would cost more than most would be willing to pay. And those high costs of high-speed connectivity will dampen Irish interest in always-on broadband.
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