Why Google won't win the browser wars

10-09-2008

by Ralph Averbuch

You'd be forgiven for thinking that all the recent ruckus about Google's entry into the browser market was about to herald a massive exodus from Internet Explorer to the shiny new Chrome, but it's just not going to happen. Not now. Not in a year. Quite possibly never. Firstly, as the underlying (and very good) technology in Chrome is open source, we're as likely to see a plethora of re-skinned versions of the browser dedicated to specific needs from a variety of quarters. Secondly, people are a tardy bunch who'll take a lot of convincing to move. Just take the recent Nielsen Online figures for browser market share (in the UK). The top five are, in order of popularity: Internet Explorer, 75pc; FireFox, 12pc; AOL Explorer, 8pc; Yahoo Browser, 4pc; and Opera Browser, 0.33pc. So, despite a really good, frankly much better alternative in FireFox, people just haven't been prepared to change established habits. Now it's true that Google carries a lot of clout and could easily promote its own offering to the 80pc or so of web users who are wedded to its search, but why would that trigger them to download a second browser? It's true, once installed Chrome is very fast at rendering web pages and makes you feel like you're suddenly on a much quicker connection, but how many will be willing to go that step and actually give it a go? If the FireFox experience is anything to go by then Chrome will establish a strong initial foothold, probably usurping FireFox itself, but thereafter it will be a long slow slog. Let's also bear in mind that there are smart people at Microsoft who will react to Chrome by working hard to improve on what they do. Microsoft will not surrender its browser dominance willingly and neither should they. Let the best browser win... perhaps.